Willis's Walkabouts Newsletter 118, June 2022 ― What's Next?
It's been an amazing year so far. If you don't believe how fragile our society really is, you need to read at least one of the first two articles in The End of Civilisation as We Know It. If you want some ideas as to what you might be able to do, read Break Glass in Case of Emergency.
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In this issue
WW 2022 ― Good, & Better
Good
Many of our trips were or are heavily booked. Our new guide, Cassidy, got good reviews from his first trip. We've been able to create a new trip for people who enjoy walking but prefer the comforts of a bed at night. This will be our first trip where some of the participants are over 90. (Over 90 and very fit for their age.
- New Trip. Kakadu Day Walks: 19-23 August
Strictly limited places. I want to do it myself. I've already booked the accom and will run it for the two who have booked even if no one else does it. - Kakadu Nonviolent Communication Bushwalk: 20-27 August
Something very different. List price: $2650. Only 3 places left. Click the link for details. - Kakadu Family Walk No. 3: 24 September - 1 October
Our only remaining trip with discounts for children. List price: $1995. The walk takes you into the gratest cooncentration of spring fed creeks in Kakadu. - Kakadu Birdwatching and Nature Special: 2-15 October
Where are all the bushwalking birdwatchers? This is by far the best time of year for birdwatching. The trip includes a five night bushwalk, one of the most leisurely we offer. We have even had a request to split the group and so something easier for those who aren't able to do the long walk. If you might be interested in this option, please let us know ASAP or it won't happen.
Better ― Special Offers
- Save $500. Kakadu Highlights No. 6: 17-31 July
Book the full trip and get $500 off the list price of $3295. Book section two on its own and take $300 off the list price of $2095. - Save $1000. Mitchell Plateau No. 2: 24 July - 7 August
Because of a cancellation, we have one space available. Book and take $1000 off the list price of $5995. - Save $500. Kakadu Highlights No. 7A: 15-27 August
Book the full trip and get $500 off the list price of $2995. Book section two on its own and take $250 off the list price of $1595. - Save $200. Finke Gorge and Watarrka National Parks: 4-17 September
Definite departure. Take $200 off the list price of $2495. Additional fees apply. Click the link for details.
All our normal discounts still apply with these offers. Advance purchase still applies to the last one.
No other trip is available before September.
WW 2022 ― Bad & Ugly!
Bad
To everything, burn, burn, burn ....
On my recent trip to Keep River as part of our Kimberley Highlights trip, the many rock pigeons we saw reminded me of how much has been lost in places like Kakadu. Once upon a time, I'd have seen dozens of the bird shown at left in areas where I'm now lucky to see one or two. We did see signs of wet season burns on our January and February trips earlier this year. More of those is probably the only way the land will ever recover. The vegetation has changed too much for the old seasonal burning patterns to work, especially when the fires are ignited from aircraft.
Ugly
Is there a decent future for bushwalking in Kakadu? I wish I knew. Some of the problems we've had are due to staff shortages and budget cuts. Some, but not all.
Over the last ten years we have lost close to half our bushwalking routes, either entirely or at the best times of year to do them. The best time for many walks is early in the season when there is still plenty of water. That's becoming impossible. I thought I had this year's program adapted to the new conditions but we where, as a registered tour operator, we were once able to go in a bit early, we couldn't get a variation of as much as a single day.
Our current trip list simply repeats the trips we've been offering next year. I've shown all the ones which I think are in doubt in red on our 2023 Kakadu Draft trip list.. Most of these trips have been in our program for something like 30 years. Until I've had a meeting with the relevant management people and find out exactly what is likely to be possible, we can't take bookings on any of the trips shown in red. I wonder if we'll ever again be able to visit places like Jim Jim Falls in the Wet as shown in the January 2009 photo here.
Corruption
Labor won the last election with the lowest first preference vote of any incoming government in Australian history. Voters have lost faith in both major parties. It will be interesting to see if the new government has the nerve to support a strong anti-corruption bill. If not, I suspect that third party and independent candidates will do even better at the next election. Here are a few stories showing why we need anti-corruption commissions at both state and federal level. (Definitely needed locally too.)
- The change that refreshes: independents ring the changes in quest to renew Australian democracy
- 'Political' government ads should be probed by integrity agencies, Victorian opposition says
Ibac and ombudsman urged to investigate after auditor general found campaigns breached state law -
Australian federal police demand parties commit to 'far-reaching anti-corruption body'
Police say current anti-corruption regime is unequal and holds law enforcement to a higher standard than politicians.
The lack of a federal anti-corruption commission is also placing the AFP in an invidious position when it is asked to investigate matters of public sector corruption. Police say that, in recent years, they have been unable to lay charges over a number of allegations due to the difficulties in proving criminal conduct in such cases and a lack of powers afforded to other state-based anti-corruption commissions, such as the power to compel witnesses. The job of detecting corruption is also highly complex, the association says. - Queensland Premier brushes off criticisms after state's integrity chief quits
- Palaszczuk brushes off watchdog's call for more powerful integrity probe
Similar to above, may have more info - The integrity issues raised by Queensland's Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk and Integrity Commissioner Nikola Stepanov
Other Threats to Democracy
- How journalists can spot the signs of autocracy ― and help ward it off **
The threats to democracy are everywhere now. A new guidebook tries to show reporters the right way to cover them.
Here's a link to the guide book - The Authoritarian Playbook: a media guide
- As an example of the major parties trying to silence the independents, consider Crossbench staff cuts create 'unfair playing field', David Pocock says, as Anthony Albanese defends decision
Understanding China
What happens in China and what China does affects everyone in Australia. Better to try and understand what's happening than blindly react as we all too often seem to do.
- If China lifts its "zero COVID policy without vaccinating, there will be over 1.5 million deaths and ICU demand 15 times greater than capacity"
And, while China continues the policy, we will continue to have shortages of various things. - China's Once-Sizzling Property Market Has Started to Cool *
New home prices in China have fallen, and would-be buyers are thinking twice. That's bad news for the overall economy.
Then came a sudden reversal of fortune. China's property sector started to crumble under the weight of its huge debts. What was already shaping up to be the country's worst housing market in years suffered another blow when a new variant of the coronavirus triggered widespread lockdowns and brought the economy to a standstill.
The turmoil has touched off a plunge in new home sales and depressed real estate prices for the first time in years, jeopardizing the prospects of an already fragile economy that had come to depend on housing for job growth and business spending, and putting at risk an important investment for millions of Chinese families.
So far, China's efforts to revive the housing market with lower mortgage rates, easier credit, subsidies and relaxed regulations have not worked. In April and May, new home prices fell in more than half of China's 70 biggest cities for the first time since 2016, and sales of such properties tumbled nearly 60 percent. - Four Takeaways From a Times Investigation Into China's Expanding Surveillance State *
Times reporters spent over a year combing through government bidding documents that reveal the country's technological road map to ensure the longevity of its authoritarian rule.
Worth reading to the end. There is very little that the authorities don't know, even less that they can't know. - 'An Invisible Cage': How China Is Policing the Future *
More detail on the above. I can't help but think that some western leaders would like that kind of power. - A Power Struggle Over Cobalt Rattles the Clean Energy Revolution *
The quest for Congo's cobalt, which is vital for electric vehicles and the worldwide push against climate change, is caught in an international cycle of exploitation, greed and gamesmanship.
From Geopolitical Futures
- In China, A Challenge to Xi's Power?
- Japan's Return to History?
- The Long Fight to Control Taiwan
- Global Economy: Commodities Crisis
The last article on commodities is particularly important as we all pay in one way or another for what happens in international commodities markets.
The End of Civilisation as We Know It
And you thought Covid was bad. 20 years from now, we may look back on Covid as the good old days.
- Why the next big solar storm might hit Earth without warning
"A big solar storm could fry the internet, but at least space weather forecasts would give us a day or two to prepare. Or maybe not, because physicists have just discovered a new kind of solar storm that strikes without notice.
I got to the article below from a link in this one. -
Four New Horsemen of an Apocalypse? Solar Flares, Super-volcanoes, Pandemics, and Artificial Intelligence
The four risks we examine here are: Space weather and solar flares, super-volcanic eruptions, high-mortality pandemics, and misaligned artificial intelligence. All four have a non-trivial probability of occurring and all four can lead to a catastrophe, possibly not very different from human extinction. - Duration and extent of the great auroral storm of 1859
If something similar hit today, our civilisation would collapse. Maybe not permanently, but millions would die as most electronics failed to work. - Or how about a new pandemic? WHO calls emergency meeting as more than 3,200 cases of monkeypox are confirmed
I don't think this will be the one, but one version kills about 10% of those who catch it.
Update, behind a bit of a paywall, Monkeypox cases surge as WHO stops short of declaring a global emergency ** - Australia 'ill-prepared' for food insecurity driven by war and climate crisis, former defence leaders say
Will everyone in suburbia someday need to grow some of their own food?
Your Money
Buy Now, Pay Later
This has become a major problem in America and is an increasing problem in Australia. Too many people looking for instant gratification get sucked into paying huge sums of interest.
- 'Extreme financial hardship': Consumer groups call for global crackdown on buy now pay later
- Three from Choice
- Does buy now, pay later need tighter regulation?
Buy now, pay later (BNPL) providers say their new self-regulation code of conduct is sufficient. We're not so sure. - Buy now, pay later: The modern debt trap
Most people use BNPL services such as Afterpay and Zip with few issues, but for some the easy access to credit can lead to financial distress. - Financial giants enter the buy now, pay later market
But are the new BNPL services from Commonwealth Bank and PayPal any better for consumers? - The Choice articles link to others for those interested in finding out more.
- Does buy now, pay later need tighter regulation?
The Rich Get Richer
- Financialised everything ― Monopolies and Oligopolies
"Low interest rates have winners and losers. They favor large businesses and wealthy investors but punish the bottom 70-80% of the economy. That's why I say the Federal Reserve (or RBA in Australia) has made the income and wealth disparity gap worse.
The government policy in most developed countries is to help the rich get richer and poor get poorer ― without admitting that's what they are doing. - Vital Signs: the case against death duties just got stronger
"When measured against the amount of wealth they already own, those with less wealth get a much bigger boost from inheritances, on average about 50 times larger for the poorest 20% than the wealthiest 20%"
Jared Dillian Money
Jared Dillian Money is a free newsletter which if full of good advice. Here are three articles which I think are well worth reading. Click any link and you can go to a list of past articles and choose others that may interest you.
- Break Glass in Case of Emergency
It's American, but when I thought of all the floods and bushfires and cyclones we have, I think it applies at least as much in Australia as it does in the US - The Best Way to Manage Inflations Effect on YOU
- Enough with austerity. When is it okay to splurge?
Skip the first bit and go down to the *** across the middle of the page.
Underinsurance
Is your neighbourhood underinsured? Search our map to find out
• Underinsurance is more common than many realise. And if you live in an area where most people don't have enough home and/or contents insurance, the financial and social catastrophe that follows a disaster can be community-wide.
• Even if you're well covered, your neighbourhood may struggle long after the dust has settled, as houses lie derelict, people struggle to bounce back and social cohesion frays.
• While income remains a significant indicator of underinsurance risk, renters (both poor or rich) are much more likely to be underinsured than home owners due to a lack of contents insurance.
Misc
- Thefts, Always an Issue for Retailers, Become More Brazen *
In recent months, robberies have been more visible, with several involving large groups rushing into stores and coming out with armloads of goods.
The article is from the US, but I have a friend with a shop in Darwin who says the problem is very real here. We've raised a generation who were taught that there were no consequences for misbehaviours and now we all pay for it in one way or another. (Higher prices to cover the cost of the thefts is the obvious one. - How the Supply Chain Crisis Unfolded *
The article is a bit old but it takes you through what happened step by step. Still interesting. - The World Is Still Short of Everything. Get Used to It. *
Pandemic-related product shortages ― from computer chips to construction materials ― were supposed to be resolved by now. Instead, the world has gained a lesson in the ripple effects of disruption. - Can We Trust What's Happening to Money? *
Personally, I don't think so. Whenever I can, I pay cash.
The Environment
Bushfires
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'There'll be no park to preserve': Australia's fuming wildfire-control debate
"Designed to prevent wildfires, controlled burning in Australia's north has exploded, sparking a fierce debate on its merits between environmentalists, traditional owners and tourism operators."
When I was looking for info about John Storey, one of our former guides who passed away late last year, I came across this article. He and I are both quoted. - Photos from the field: leaving habitats unburnt for longer could help save little mammals in northern Australia
- Yes, it's rocket science: Australia needs eyes in space to monitor our tinderbox landscape
Australia relies on foreign satellites to gather this information. These satellites are not designed to assess our unique bush landscape and its highly flammable eucalyptus. We need to develop bespoke Australian satellites to better prevent bushfires. - Alaska's June wildfires break records, fueled by hot, dry weather **
Australian Problems
There is a 'develop at any cost' mentality that we need to fight against. Here are a few stories to show what I mean.
- Protect our floodplains
Proposed developments may destroy some of the NT's iconic rivers. This link allows people from outside NT to help by saying that the floodplains are part of why they come and that they are less likely to do so if the natural environment is damaged. - Deforestation can raise local temperatures by up to 4.5? ― and heat untouched areas 6km away
In many parts of the world, including the tropics and Australia, expanding farmland is a major reason for cutting down forest. But given hotter temperatures also reduce the productivity of farms, conserving forests might prove a better strategy for food security and for the livelihoods of farmers. - This is an old article but I don't think anything has changed.
'Statewide greenwashing': NSW's proposed national park reforms attacked by environment groups
The bill would establish a nonprofit entity to accept conservation donations and allow the environment minister to create carbon credits.
Climate Change Costs Money ― We'll All Pay.
- In maps, photos and videos, see the full force of Yellowstone's floods **
"Widespread flooding spurred by torrential rain and rapid snowmelt triggered mudslides and rockslides. Hundreds of residents lost their homes. The beloved park's landscape may be forever changed." - Climate Change Poses a Widening Threat to National Security *
Intelligence and defense agencies issued reports warning that the warming planet will increase strife between countries and spur migration. "Tens of millions of people are likely to be displaced by 2050 because of climate change ― including as many as 143 million people in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America." Maybe the best way to avoid an influx of refugees is to do something to help mitigate global warming.
The article is written from an American perspective but applies just as much, if not more, to Australia. - Climate change is skewing economic data ― and the stakes are high for economists to get it right
"What we can assume, reasonably, is that climate change is impacting business operations," said one economist. - Can a Carbon-Emitting Iron Ore Tycoon Save the Planet? *
Andrew Forrest made a mining fortune. Now he wants to lead a climate change revolution ― and beat the fossil fuel giants along the way. -
'Eye-watering': climate change disasters will cost Australia billions each year, study finds
Catastrophes like fires and floods could set the economy back more than $1.2tn by 2060, even if action is taken
A Partial Answer to Plastic Pollution?
This Styrofoam-eating 'superworm' could help solve the garbage crisis **
Interesting News From The Animal World
- How We Helped Bison Make a Huge Comeback
- This bird's stamina is remarkable: it flies non-stop for 5 days from Japan to Australia, but now its habitat is under threat
Good photos. Interesting read. - On This German Farm, Cows Are in Charge. Or at Least Coequals *
The cows don't have to produce milk. The pigs sleep late. No animal on this former dairy farm serves a human need. Their only purpose is to live peacefully ― and provoke questions about how we eat. - Did a Cuttlefish Write This? *
Octopuses and squid are full of cephalopod character. But more scientists are making the case that cuttlefish hold the key to unlocking evolutionary secrets about intelligence.
Nice little video at the start.
World Nude Hiking Day
21 June, the summer solstice in the northern hemisphere is also knows as World Nude Hiking Day. It's most popular in Europe, particularly Germany. If you're keen "Check out Germany's Harz Mountains and try the Harzer Naturistenstieg, an 18km hiking trail dedicated to those who like to bushwalks sans clothes!"
One of our former guides now lives in Germany so I asked her what she thought. "It's a hot summer here, from 11 degrees to 37 in a matter of moments .... Germans hit the lakes and parks with passion, a naked passion. I guess the FKK attitude or free body culture plays a big part in the naked comfort and as an Australian reared from the sexual repression of the English .... its a wonderful relief. Being around that comfort without the sexual overtones is great."
The Top End bush isn't conducive to nude bushwalking, but the remote pools we visit encourage some people to try nude swimming. And, I do remember one incident a long time ago on a Darwin Bushwalking Club trip where someone who had a severe case of chaffing took off most of their clothes once we got onto a 4WD track (which was closed to vehicles at that time).
WW 2023 ― Special Mentions
Inflation is here. Wages will not keep up. Our 2023 prices will rise, the only question is by how much. Book before a price rise is announced and you lock in the existing price on a trip where we provide the transport and a price half way between the old and the new where we charter it. Here are three trips with bookings.
- Green Kimberley:January-February
The link will to take you to the page that describes the trip we offered this year. The 2023 trip will probably start slightly later and will finish with about a week in Keep River where we'll fly in and out by helicopter from Kununurra. - Bungles in the Wet: 12-25 February
Covid killed the 2022 trip. That isn't going to happen again. - Karijini: 2-15 April
This trip is already half full. Get in soon if you want to see the park when the water is warm enough for you to enjoy a swim.
Our web page has a link to a report about our 2021 trip that was posted on the Bushwalk Australia website.
Litchfield
The northern part of Litchfield is so full of tourists and local day trippers that most people forget how much the southern part of the park has to offer, especially early in the year when other places are inaccessible. We ran a charter trip for a family group in April. One of the young ones created a video which shows a bit of what it's like from a young person's perspective. Worth a look. Litchfield April 2022 Video.
If you enjoyed that, you might want to have a browse of the Willis's Walkabouts YouTube Channel.
The Lighter Side
A collection of stories that I found interesting.
- Discoveries shed new light on the day the dinosaurs died **
- The remarkable brain of a carpet cleaner who speaks 24 languages **
- Brazil, Land of the Thong, Embraces Its Heavier Self *
A country known for beach bodies is confronting soaring obesity rates with new laws that enshrine protections for people who are overweight.
I wonder how much is due to changing lifestyles and how much is due to junk food. - Dogs Can't Help Falling in Love *
One researcher argues that a dog's ability to bond has more to do with forming emotional attachments than being smart about what humans want. Dogs will bond with other species too. - The Black people who lived in Walden Woods long before Henry David Thoreau **
- And wow, I clicked a link in the above and came up with a bit of history I didn't know existed. She sued her enslaver for reparations and won. Her descendants never knew. **
Well worth the read.
News About This Newsletter
Restricted websites. The NY Times allows non-subscribers to look at ten free articles each month. I've got more links than that in this newsletter so I've marked them with a red asterisk (*) so that you can choose which are of most interest to you. Bloomberg allows three free articles. The Washington Post and The Economist both have limits but I'm not sure what the current limits are so I've marked their articles with a double red asterisk (**). If you can't get past a paywall, try searching for the words in the title in the newsletter.
Coming Next Issue
• Not so clean, clean energy ― I'd hoped to have this in this issue but there's just too much.
• Dating Aboriginal rock art ― I went to an interesting lecture on 21 June but didn't have time to follow up on it all.
• Updates on our trips and more, much more
• When? Probably August, but it could be late September or October if things change fast enough or I run out of time.
As always, I welcome a bit of feedback about some of the things in this newsletter and suggestions for the next one.
Sending the newsletter
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I hope you enjoyed reading this as much as I enjoyed writing it.
Russell Willis